By Hocine LOUKKAF on 9/30/2024
After a lot of disappointing draft picks over the last ten years (Ntlikina, Hayes, Doumbouya, Dieng…), Wembanyama has already put France on the map as the best prospect since Lebron. But he could be just the first of a wider movement which could make France one of the best providers of talent for the NBA, but also, with the emerging NIL market, for college basketball.
Why is France producing so much talent ?
A lot has already been said about France’s mixed population due to its history of colonization and how Parker, despite the draft of Abdul Wahad and Moiso before him, has been instrumental in making it possible to be an NBA player straight out of France, paving the way for more than 30 French players since 2001.
The French system is pretty simple with pro teams having their u18 and u21 teams (Espoirs) while Pôle France, formerly INSEP or Centre Federal, managed by the federation, get the supposedly best u18 prospects, with the top ones playing in 3rd division. Recently, teams have improved their structure and arenas but the true difference maker has been the development of young players and their integration into the pro team. For example, Parker’s owned ASVEL has lost multiple prospects like Wemby or Risacher over the last years while Cholet, a less powerful club, has developed multiple NBA players including recent 6th pick Tidjane Salaun. That has led several French prospects to leave France for other countries like Australia (Rupert, Sarr) or Germany, with Ulm using its French pipeline to land players like Hayes, Dadiet or 2025 prospect Noa Essengue.
The success of the French National team has also made basketball more attractive in a country where football or soccer is king. Both men and women teams reaching the Finals against USA at Paris Olympics will necessarily bring more kids to the court with Wembanyama the new face of French basketball after Parker’s incredible career.
Despite this good environment to succeed as more and more young players are getting into the pro rosters, there may be one major weakness yet which can explain why so many recent high picks gave failed. Indeed, while the structures are solid and the potential is obvious, there’s still a lack of overall IQ and toughness as the hype is often higher than the real level of the prospects. Consequently, players are drafted high at a young age when they start having playing time with the pros and also due to their play in international youth competition, but they’re not performing as well with the pros as used to do the previous generation (Parker, Pietrus, Diaw, Batum, Gobert, Fournier or even lesser-known players like Seraphin or Mahinmi).
How has college basketball become more attractive for French young players ?
While college wasn’t necessarily the first option for French NBA prospects, this might have changed this summer with multiple interesting young players deciding to leave their team despite already playing minutes with the pros. Indeed, the NIL market, despite all the questions about the way foreign players can be paid and the reality of the paycheck, could allow the best players to earn in a year more than ten times what their current French contract is, making it almost impossible to refuse. On a basketball standpoint, we’ll see how a player like Diomande, a potential second rounder who committed to Washington, will perform, as we already saw higher upside players like Perrin (Illinois) or Fibleuil (UCLA) coming back after one year, potentially losing momentum in a year that could have led them to a draft.
Who are the next ones ?
As far as the 2025 draft is concerned, Europe is the place to watch for French prospects with Nolan Traore, the starting PG for St Quentin and a potential top 5 pick in this class, and Noa Essengue, a potential top 10 pick playing for Ulm in Germany, both unanimous first round prospects, while other U18 and U20 French NT members like Zaccharie Perrin, a versatile big playing for Nancy and Noa Penda, a Swizz knife wing playing for Le Mans, will get the exposure in pro A to convice scouts.
The next French classes to come, except maybe for the 2007-born kids, are also stacked with multiple players considered amongst the best in their generation in Europe.
For the 2008-born prospects, two names have already been hyped, 6-8 combo forward Hugo Yimga Moukouri, who led the U17 in scoring during the last U17 FIBA World Cup despite being one year younger, and U16 Eurobasket MVP Cameron Houindo, an athletic 6-9 PF. Both, playing for Pôle France, are advanced physically and athletically for their age but must work on polishing their skills and IQ to be as dominant in the rugged French 3rd division.
The 2009-born class may be even better with another advanced 6-8 combo forward, Nathan Soliman, who played two years above his age at the U17 FIBA WC (7.3pts 3.6rbds) and is considred one of the world’s top prospect while Cholet’s new gem, diminutive 5-11 PG Aaron Ntowo Nansi, has led France to the U16 Euro title (5as 2.7st for only 1.3to per game), displaying the ability to be what France has lacked the most recently, an elite floorleader.
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